Been at my OEM for going on 11 years. The tariff situation has completely reshuffled our cost structure and yet every planning meeting I sit in still feels like we're waiting for someone in DC to flip a switch and make it go back to normal. We're still modeling scenarios like this is temporary. It's not. The Supreme Court ruling last week on IEEPA refunds was a nice headline but the Section 232 tariffs on steel, aluminum, and parts aren't going anywhere. Anyone else sitting in rooms where leadership is still in denial mode? How is your organization actually adapting, or are they?
OEM - Sales
April 26, 2026 - 13:06
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You nailed it. We got a deck…
You nailed it. We got a deck last quarter showing three "scenarios" and scenario one was literally "tariffs resolved by Q3." That ship has sailed. The suppliers who figured this out six months ago are already ahead. Everyone else is scrambling.
The problem is the planning…
I heard through the…
I heard through the grapevine that at least two OEMs are quietly modeling a scenario where average transaction prices hold above $50k through 2028. That's not a tariff problem anymore, that's a structural affordability problem. And nobody wants to say it out loud.
Yes, OEM product decisions…
Yes, OEM product decisions are 3 to 5 years out. Supplier contracts, material sourcing decisions, and manufacturing footprint investments are not all on that timeline. There are near-term operational decisions being made right now, procurement terms, logistics contracts, tooling commitments, that are still being made as if the cost structure from 18 months ago is coming back. The $50k average transaction price modeling described in the last comment is the honest version of what permanent tariffs actually mean. Nobody wants to own that number publicly because it is an admission that a meaningful portion of the market cannot afford a new vehicle and the business model has not adjusted to that reality yet.
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